Learn about the prioritization method behind this tool
This application is based on a prioritization exercise that helps teams organize their work using three dimensions: Urgency, Value, and Duration.
Qualitative Cost of Delay (Black Swan Farming)
The original inspiration for this method. Joshua Arnold's foundational article on qualitative Cost of Delay, introducing the 3×3 matrix approach using Value and Urgency, and the concept of CD3 (Cost of Delay Divided by Duration).
TBM 245: The Magic Prioritization Trick
The workshop format based on the qualitative Cost of Delay approach, including the cognitive psychology behind it and how to run the exercise with teams.
TBM 374: Strategy & Urgency
An exploration of how urgency relates to strategy, including the difference between proactive and reactive urgency, and why timing is a crucial part of strategic decision-making.
TBM 301: How to Reconcile Prioritization and $/Time Allocation
Explores why percentage-based allocation models can mask priorities, and how to treat allocations as outputs of strategy rather than inputs. Includes a value/urgency bucket framework for thinking about resource allocation.
Urgency Profiles (Black Swan Farming)
Important reading on understanding urgency. Explores how delay affects value differently depending on the lifecycle of benefits and market conditions, including four common urgency profiles.
First, organize your items based purely on urgency—when does the value start to decline or risk increase if we delay?
Learn more about urgency: Understanding Urgency Profiles - A detailed exploration of how delay affects value differently depending on the lifecycle of benefits and market conditions.
Next, organize items by value—what's the total value of this work?
Finally, set the duration—how long will this work take?
The application calculates CD3 for each item, which is a weighted cost of delay (CoD/duration). Items are automatically sorted by CD3 in descending order, giving you the optimal sequence for your work.
Why CD3 helps us prioritize:
"CD3: Cost of Delay Divided by Duration is a prioritisation/scheduling method that maximises the value delivered in a given time period when you have limited capacity."
"One of the benefits of CD3 is that it enables us to use a common measure to compare opportunities with different value and urgency, and where the duration differs."
"Because CD3 uses Duration on the denominator, it also has the benefit of encouraging the breakdown of work into smaller batches."
Prioritizer uses weighted calculations to determine the priority order of your items. The calculations incorporate customizable weights that you can adjust in Settings to match your team's priorities.
The Cost of Delay represents the combined impact of urgency and value. It's calculated by multiplying the urgency bucket's weight by the value bucket's weight:
Cost of Delay = Urgency Bucket Weight × Value Bucket Weight
Where:
Example: If an item is categorized into urgency bucket Level 2 (bucket weight: 2) and value bucket Level 3 (bucket weight: 3), then Cost of Delay = 2 × 3 = 6
CD3 is the final priority score that determines the order of your work. It divides the Cost of Delay by the duration bucket's weight:
CD3 = Cost of Delay ÷ Duration Bucket Weight
Or, combining both formulas:
CD3 = (Urgency Bucket Weight × Value Bucket Weight) ÷ Duration Bucket Weight
Where:
Example: If an item is categorized into urgency bucket Level 2 (bucket weight: 2), value bucket Level 3 (bucket weight: 3), and duration bucket Level 1 (bucket weight: 1), then:
Another example: If the same item had duration bucket Level 3 (bucket weight: 3), then:
All bucket weights are customizable in Settings. The default bucket weights are:
Since duration bucket weight is in the denominator, higher duration bucket weights result in lower CD3 scores. This means shorter durations (lower duration bucket weights) get higher priority, which aligns with the principle that faster delivery is generally better.
You can adjust these bucket weights in Settings to reflect your team's priorities. For example, if you want to heavily penalize longer durations, you could increase duration bucket weights. Or if you want to emphasize urgency more, you could increase urgency bucket weights.
Once you've reached the Results stage, you can run a confidence survey on any item to capture the team's confidence in the urgency, value, and duration categorizations. This allows you to adjust the CD3 calculation based on how confident the team is in each dimension.
The confidence survey asks four questions:
For each question, the facilitator collects votes using a 4-point confidence scale:
The facilitator enters vote counts for each confidence level (e.g., "5 people voted 'Not Confident', 10 voted 'Somewhat Confident', etc."). The system calculates a weighted average confidence score for each dimension.
The confidence-weighted CD3 calculation applies confidence individually to each dimension:
Confidence Average = (Sum of (Vote Count × Confidence Weight)) ÷ Total Votes
Weighted Urgency = Urgency Bucket Weight × Urgency Confidence Average
Weighted Value = Value Bucket Weight × Value Confidence Average
Weighted Duration = Duration Bucket Weight × Duration Confidence Average
Confidence-Weighted CoD = Weighted Urgency × Weighted Value
Confidence-Weighted CD3 = Confidence-Weighted CoD ÷ Weighted Duration
Example: An item has urgency=2 (weight 2), value=3 (weight 3), duration=1 (weight 1). The team votes:
Calculations:
Compare this to the base CD3: (2 × 3) ÷ 1 = 6.0. The confidence-weighted CD3 of 1.56 reflects lower confidence in the categorizations.
To run a confidence survey:
The confidence-weighted CD3 will be displayed alongside the base CD3, showing both the calculated value and a breakdown of the weighted values used: "Confidence Weighted CD3: 1.56 (Urgency: 1.0, Value: 1.4, Duration: 0.9)"
You can edit or delete surveys at any time. If you delete a survey, the item returns to showing only the base CD3.
Note: Confidence surveys are optional. Items without confidence surveys will continue to show only the base CD3 calculation. The confidence survey is a tool for teams who want to factor uncertainty into their prioritization decisions.
This method works because it:
Prioritizer is based on the Cost of Delay methodology, which is unique in its ability to accommodate different mixes of value and urgency while accounting for the function of time. This sets it apart from many other popular prioritization frameworks.
The critical difference is that Prioritizer forces you to think about impact as a function of time. Most prioritization frameworks treat urgency and value as static attributes, but Prioritizer requires you to consider how the value of work changes over time and how delays affect that value.
Prioritizer addresses this by:
Unlike many prioritization methods, Cost of Delay (the methodology behind Prioritizer) uniquely accommodates different mixes of value and urgency. Here's how it compares to other common frameworks:
The Eisenhower Matrix categorizes work into four quadrants based on urgency and importance. However, it treats urgency as a binary state (urgent or not urgent) without requiring you to think about how urgency relates to value erosion or opportunity cost. It also creates four distinct categories without a way to prioritize within or across quadrants.
RICE (Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort) combines multiple factors into a single score, but it doesn't explicitly account for how value changes over time or how delays affect opportunity cost. The urgency component is implicit rather than explicitly tied to value erosion.
MoSCoW categorizes features into priority buckets, but the relationship between urgency and value is ambiguous. It doesn't force teams to think about how delays affect value or provide a way to compare items across categories.
This framework plots items on a matrix of value and effort, prioritizing high-value, low-effort items. However, it doesn't account for urgency or how value changes over time. The relationship between value and urgency is implicit rather than explicit.
ICE combines impact, confidence, and ease into a single score, but like RICE, it doesn't explicitly consider how value erodes with delay or how urgency relates to opportunity cost.
While weighted scoring is customizable and can incorporate urgency and value, it typically doesn't force teams to think about urgency as a function of time or how delays affect value. The weights are often arbitrary rather than tied to the time-sensitive nature of value.
The Kano Model categorizes features by customer satisfaction (basic, performance, delight), but it doesn't account for urgency or how the value of features changes over time based on market timing or competitive dynamics.
This method focuses on the opportunity size and effort required, but it doesn't explicitly consider urgency or how delays affect the opportunity value.
Cost of Delay (and by extension, Prioritizer) is unique because it:
The inclusion of urgency in Prioritizer helps teams think explicitly about the impact of delays on value. When categorizing items by urgency, you're answering: "If we delay this work, how does it affect the total value?" This forces consideration of:
By arriving at cost of delay, factoring in duration, and calculating weighted cost of delay (CD3), Prioritizer provides a quantitative framework for making prioritization decisions that accounts for the time-sensitive nature of value and the time investment required to deliver that value.
The Settings section allows you to customize how the prioritization method works for your team. You can adjust limits, weights, and customize the titles and descriptions for each urgency and value level. All of these settings are fully customizable—the default labels like "WHENEVER", "SOON", "ASAP", "MEH", "BONUS", and "KILLER" are just starting points that you can change to match your team's language and context.
Limits control the maximum number of items that can be placed in each urgency or value bucket. This helps enforce a distribution and prevents everything from being categorized as "urgent" or "high value".
When a limit is exceeded, the bucket will be highlighted to indicate it's over the limit. You can adjust these limits based on your team size and the number of items you're prioritizing.
Weights are used in the CD3 calculation to determine the priority order. Higher weights mean higher priority in the calculation. The weights are multiplied by the urgency and value levels, then divided by duration to calculate CD3.
Note: Duration weights are used in the denominator of the CD3 calculation, so higher duration weights actually reduce the CD3 score (since duration is divided). This means shorter durations get higher priority.
Customize the labels and descriptions that appear in the urgency and value views. These are fully customizable settings that help your team understand what each category means in your specific context. You can change the titles to match your organization's terminology—for example, you might prefer "Low", "Medium", "High" instead of the default labels, or use domain-specific terms that resonate with your team.
These are the column headers that appear in the Urgency view. You can customize each title to match your team's language. The default values are:
To customize: Go to Settings → Titles & Descriptions → Urgency Titles, enter your preferred label for each level, and click Save. The new titles will immediately appear in the Urgency view.
These are the detailed explanations that appear when you click on an active urgency column header. You can customize these descriptions to reflect your team's specific context and understanding of urgency. The default descriptions are:
To customize: Go to Settings → Titles & Descriptions → Urgency Descriptions, edit the text for each level to match your team's understanding, and click Save. The updated descriptions will appear when users click on the urgency column headers.
These are the row headers that appear in the Value view. Like urgency titles, these are fully customizable. The default values are:
To customize: Go to Settings → Titles & Descriptions → Value Titles, enter your preferred label for each level, and click Save. The new titles will immediately appear in the Value view.
These are the detailed explanations that appear when you click on an active value row header. You can customize these to match your organization's definition of value. The default descriptions are:
To customize: Go to Settings → Titles & Descriptions → Value Descriptions, edit the text for each level to reflect your team's definition of value, and click Save. The updated descriptions will appear when users click on the value row headers.
How to Save Settings: Each setting has its own "Save" button. After entering a value, click the corresponding Save button to apply the change. The settings are saved to your browser's local storage and will persist across sessions. Remember that titles and descriptions are independent settings—you can change the title without changing the description, and vice versa.